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After netting nine goals in his initial seven league matches, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has kicked off the season with incredible momentum.

Although this isn't his strongest opening to a campaign - he scored 11 goals in his first seven games in two seasons ago and ten in the previous campaign - it nevertheless places him with a three-goal lead in the initial race for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

The fact that none of his nine goals have been spot-kicks makes it all the more impressive.

Haaland's Distinct Advantage

Certainly, fitness issues could potentially disrupt in the eventual Golden Boot winner, but there are two key factors why Haaland is such a clear frontrunner for the award so early in the season.

To begin with, the total of conversions he has thus far netted - and, just as importantly, the total and standard of chances he is getting.

Furthermore, the slow start his regular challengers for the honor have made.

Chance Quality Assessment

A footballer's xG statistic (xG) signifies how many goals a English league attacker has traditionally converted from the number and quality of scoring situations he's encountered.

This isn't a number randomly picked by data analysts, but by English top-flight records.

And if we look at footballers' expected goals in the Premier League so far this term from regular situations, the Norwegian striker is obtaining considerably more quality chances to convert than every other footballer.

Indeed, even if Haaland wasn't superior at converting opportunities than any other player in the division, he would still have scored over double the amount goals as everyone else.

Chance Creation Breakdown

This is illustrated by examining the number and quality of opportunities that players have had in the top flight so far.

Haaland has registered 29 attempts so far this term, twelve additional compared to all other attackers.

Interestingly, this is not that remarkable for him - he had previously registered more non-penalty shots at this point in the previous two campaigns (30 in last season and 34 in 2024-25).

What's particularly remarkable even by his standards is the standard of scoring situations he has had this term. His attempts have had an expected goals rating of 0.27 per attempt.

This statistic indicates is that players have historically converted the efforts he's registered at a rate of 27%.

Regarding attackers registering at minimum ten attempts, only Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez has had simpler scoring situations to net per shot - because of a few simple finishes against the Hammers and Seagulls.

City striker's xG statistic of 0.27 is considerably superior than the 0.17 xG per effort he had at the beginning of the previous campaign.

To summarize, the opportunities he has had in this campaign have been notably easier to convert from in a reorganised City team than those at the opening of last term.

Past Performance Analysis

Opening a term so impressively is, as noted earlier, typical for Haaland. After seven games last term he had scored 10 goals - four more than anyone else and six additional compared to Mohamed Salah.

However, it was the Liverpool forward who won the Golden Boot with 29 goals, a touchdown more than the Manchester City striker.

This season, while Haaland has opened with incredible momentum, Salah has registered half as many goals and had half the chances (xG) than at this juncture last term.

Indeed this has been the least productive beginning to a Premier League season the Egypt forward has made.

Challengers' Quiet Beginning

It's not merely Salah who has started slowly either. If we look at the highest eleven attackers in the English top division last season, Haaland has scored as many goals as the additional ten attackers put together so far.

Be it because of fitness issues - multiple prominent forwards - extended transfer dramas in Alexander Isak's case or just due to the fact that their clubs have faced difficulties (multiple established scorers), Haaland's likely rivals in the contest for the top scorer award have failed to perform so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

While Haaland looks the clear favourite for the Premier League scoring title, what about the Continental scoring award that is presented to the attacker netting the highest number in Europe's top-five leagues?

That race is significantly tighter at this opening period because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have likewise begun in superb fashion, with eleven and nine strikes respectively.

The fact Haaland has scored so many times and has the highest xG of the three players without having taken any penalties makes him the favourite.

But since the two continental superstars are two of the best finishers in continental soccer in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the race is certainly on.