🔗 Share this article

When dawn illuminated the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, delegates remained trapped in a enclosed conference room, oblivious whether it was day or night. Having spent 12 hours in tense discussions, with scores ministers representing 17 groups of countries ranging from the least developed nations to the wealthiest economies.

Tempers were short, the air heavy as sweaty delegates faced up to the grim reality: they were unlikely to achieve a comprehensive agreement in Brazil. The international climate negotiations hovered near the brink of complete breakdown.

The central impasse: Fossil fuels

Scientific evidence has shown for more than a century, the greenhouse gases produced by consuming fossil fuels is warming our planet to critical levels.

Yet, during nearly three decades of regular climate meetings, the crucial requirement to cease fossil fuel use has been referenced only once – in a decision made two years ago at the Dubai climate summit to "move beyond fossil fuels". Representatives from the Arab Group, Russia, and a few other countries were determined this would not occur another time.

Mounting support for change

Simultaneously, a increasing coalition of countries were just as committed that advancement on this issue was urgently necessary. They had formulated a plan that was gathering expanding support and made it apparent they were willing to dig in.

Less wealthy nations strongly sought to advance on securing economic resources to help them manage the increasingly severe impacts of extreme weather.

Breaking point

By the early hours of Saturday, some delegates were willing to walk out and cause breakdown. "We were close for us," remarked one national delegate. "I considered to walk away."

The pivotal moment came through negotiations with Saudi Arabia. Near 6am, senior representatives separated from the main group to hold a confidential discussion with the lead Saudi negotiator. They pressed language that would indirectly acknowledge the global commitment to "transition away from fossil fuels" made two years earlier in Dubai.

Unanticipated resolution

Instead of explicitly namechecking fossil fuels, the text would refer to "the previous commitment". Upon deliberation, the Saudi delegation surprisingly agreed to the wording.

Participants expressed relief. Applause rang out. The settlement was completed.

With what became known as the "Belém political package", the world took another small step towards the systematic reduction of fossil fuels – a uncertain, limited step that will barely interrupt the climate's continued progression towards crisis. But nevertheless a notable change from absolute paralysis.

Major components of the agreement

• In addition to the indirect reference in the official document, countries will begin work a plan to systematically reduce fossil fuels
• This will be mostly a optional undertaking led by Brazil that will provide updates next year
• Addressing the required reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to stay within the 1.5C limit was also put off to next year
• Developing countries achieved a tripling to $120bn of regular financial support to help them cope with the impacts of extreme weather
• This amount will not be completely provided until 2035
• Workers will benefit from a "fair adjustment program" to help people working in fossil fuel sectors move toward the sustainable sector

Differing opinions

As the world teeters on the brink of climate "tipping points" that could eliminate habitats and plunge whole regions into crisis, the agreement was far from the "significant advancement" needed.

"Negotiators delivered some modest progress in the proper course, but in light of the magnitude of the climate crisis, it has not met the occasion," warned one policy director.

This imperfect deal might have been the best attainable, given the international tensions – including a American leader who shunned the talks and remains committed to oil and coal, the increasing presence of nationalist politics, continuing wars in different locations, unacceptable degrees of inequality, and global economic volatility.

"The climate arsonists – the fossil fuel giants – were ultimately in the crosshairs at Cop30," notes one policy convener. "This represents progress on that. The opportunity is accessible. Now we must transform it into a real fire escape to a protected environment."

Significant divisions revealed

While nations were able to applaud the official adoption of the deal, Cop30 also highlighted deep fissures in the sole international mechanism for tackling the climate crisis.

"International summits are unanimity-required, and in a era of international tensions, consensus is progressively challenging to reach," observed one global leader. "I cannot pretend that this summit has achieved complete success that is needed. The gap between our current position and what science demands remains dangerously wide."

If the world is to avoid the worst ravages of climate collapse, the international negotiations alone will not be nearly enough.